By Frbiz Tian

Taking into account the heavy product patent expires, the control of costs and to pay increased health insurance and other multiple factors, in the just-concluded 2010 “China and the world” medical forum, medical professionals at home and abroad have said they saw emerging markets, especially Chinese medicine market development, China’s pharmaceutical market is expected in the second quarter will continue to achieve rapid growth.

The Rise of Emerging Markets in Chinese

Yimei Shi Shi Simin market research manager at the Forum pointed out that the global pharmaceutical market in 2009 reached 837 billion U.S. dollars, up 7%, the next five years, the global pharmaceutical market will grow by 300 billion U.S. dollars, 2014 to 10 001 100 000 000 000 dollars, the annual compound growth rate of 5% to 8%, which will arise in the emerging markets is much higher than the net growth in mature markets.

Analysis of the reasons one hand, the government-funded health care system has a mature market, growth in drug prices will be further contain pharmaceutical buyers, while in emerging markets, the fast-growing market demand will be the completely offset it. 2014 is expected to mature market will grow by 3% to 6% growth in emerging markets will reach 14% ~ 17%. And 2014, growth in emerging markets will total 120 000 000 000 ~ 140 billion U.S. dollars, basically flat with mature markets.

On the other hand, the wave of patent expiration will lead to the influx of a number of generic therapeutic areas. In the next five years, more than 142 billion U.S. dollars in drug sales in mature markets will face the impact of generics. For example, cholesterol regulator, antipsychotics and anti-ulcer patients and other major therapeutic areas, both will use low-cost generics. Global pharmaceutical sales are expected in 2014 will therefore reduce the 80 billion total of 1000 billion, of which 2 / 3 of the patent expiration will occur in the United States.

Thus, a large number of patents will expire generic drug market, a huge room for growth. In this area, the contribution of developed countries is decreasing, while the contribution of emerging markets 30%.

In China, new medical reform policies that encourage generic drugs also (including branded generics) in the development of rapid development for the pharmaceutical market provides policy support and protection. According to market forecasts, China will rank in 2011, the third largest pharmaceutical market.

New Medical Reform driving steady growth in the domestic pharmaceutical market.

China has 1.3 billion people, it means that as many as 1.3 billion people in China in need of medical care services. In the next three years, China is expected to gross domestic product annual growth rate of 7% -9%, 24% of pharmaceutical market will grow at a compound rate of growth to reach 73 billion U.S. dollars in 2013. Coupled with the Chinese government introduced a series of medical reform policies, and vigorously develop high and new technology applications, the industry will have the Chinese pharmaceutical market in the next 5 to 10 years as the “medicine of gold.”

The new medical reform to the Chinese commercial market brings opportunities, and a good situation to have some sustainability. From rural health care consumption, the new rural cooperative in 2010 of the level of funding from 50 in 2007 raised to 150 yuan, an increase of 200%; from urban health care consumption, in 2010 the residents of some provinces and cities pay the medical insurance fund during the year limit from the maximum less than 100,000 yuan had increased to 15 million, more than 50% growth.

In addition, as the government increasingly focused on disease prevention, for some extremely poor groups in vaccines and preventive medicine, the government funded health coverage for as much as possible, effectively pulling the pharmaceutical market size.

The data from the Ministry of Industry show that in 2009 China’s total industrial output value pharmaceutical industry topped 1 trillion yuan mark, reaching 1.0382 trillion yuan, up 21.1%.

It is noteworthy that, along with the domestic pharmaceutical market is expanding, and also have the world’s pharmaceutical giants grab market share in China’s medicine.

Chinese import and export of the second quarter will continue to improve.

Medicine & Health Products Import & Export from China Chamber of Commerce statistics show that in 2010 a quarter of China’s pharmaceutical import and export amounted to 13.18 billion U.S. dollars, up 28.09 percent. Of which exports 8.82 billion U.S. dollars, up 30.38 percent, imports 4.359 billion U.S. dollars, up 23.70%, have achieved relatively rapid recovery of growth. Especially in March, exports to achieve a super-expected growth in the export value reached in December 2009 the second record high since.

In addition, the recent import market, the once stagnant growth of the bulk drug imports a significant rebound in the first quarter rose 30.71% API, the proportion of imported species to reach 31.58%.

In addition, with the policy of promoting national health care reform, diagnostic equipment imports continued to grow recently, the main importing country of origin for the United States, Germany and Japan, imports of region mainly in Shanghai, Beijing, Guangdong and Jiangsu in the more developed regions, the four provinces market share of nearly 80% of imports.

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